Wake up knowing the market regime.
A 3-minute morning market map: what changed overnight, what markets are really pricing, and which levels would change the read.
10Y > 4.65%
Oil < $100
What members receive every morning
What a premium morning brief looks like.
Recent first-page reads.
Samples rotate from older premium briefs, so the public example improves as the report quality improves — without exposing today’s paid brief.
Complacent supply-shock risk-on, with equities near highs, oil above $91, and volatility still acting like the…
Core gap: Polymarket (prediction markets that price real-money probabilities) assigns 69% odds to zero Fed cuts in 2026 while growth…
Watch: Breadth 53%, VIX 16, and DIX 41.7% decide whether this remains controlled or starts repricing.
Open sample →Complacent supply-shock risk-on, with equities at altitude while oil still carries the cost of geopolitical oxygen.
Core gap: Oil at $90 and Hormuz headlines remain active while equity volatility sleeps.
Watch: Oil above $90, VIX reclaiming 18, breadth failing below 50%.
Open sample →Complacent supply-shock denial risk-on. Equities at record highs while the physical commodity chain tightens and GDP…
Core gap: Spot prices peace. Prediction markets and supply chains price war.
Watch: Increase Supply Shock: Aluminum shortage confirmed at smelter level (not just LME warehousing).…
Open sample →Three Pillars
Reality Gap
Where headlines, prediction markets, and money flows disagree. The gap between what people believe and what capital actually does.
Market Plumbing
Dealer gamma, dark pools, volatility, breadth, credit, yields. The infrastructure beneath the surface.
Regime Intelligence
What the combined signals say about the current risk environment - and what would have to change for the thesis to break.
Free vs Premium
Free Tue/Thu Brief
- Two market regime reads per week
- One reality gap
- One watch level
- Sample archive access
Recent Intelligence
Independent Research
Sentinel is built by an independent market researcher focused on macro regime shifts, prediction-market divergences, and market structure signals.
The research process combines live market data, Polymarket probabilities, volatility structure, yields, oil, breadth, credit, and cross-asset confirmation.
The goal is not to predict every move. The goal is to identify when the market narrative and market pricing start to diverge.
Sentinel is built to identify when market narrative and market pricing start to diverge.